The data firm called ‘Hawkfish’ that ‘Axios‘ that although President Trump may appear to have won, he will eventually end up losing the elections.
Why Is The Warning Not In Favour Of Trump?
What needs to be understood is that about 40% of the voters will vote by mail. This means that there is a two-time increase as compared to the polling done for the 2016 elections.
Out of that 40%, 50% will be casting their votes for Joe Biden while only 20% will be supporting Trump. This can easily result in a massive lead for the President on the night of the elections. But a huge pile of mail will still be yet to be counted.
Warning Is Issued To Prevent Potential Chaos
This is likely to cause massive unrest among US citizens.
So, Mendelson further says the firm is doing the job of sounding an alarm to show that this can indeed take place.
But “When every legitimate vote is tallied…it will show that what happened on election night was…a mirage. It looked like Donald Trump was in the lead and he fundamentally was not when every ballot gets counted.”
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One of the firm’s model, based on a nationwide poll of more than 17,000 voters, shows that Trump could indeed hold the lead. The lead will be as high as 408 to 130 electoral votes, but this will only account for 15% of the total votes by mail. This many votes will likely be counted by the 3rd of November.
But, ultimately the lead can be in favour of Biden within four days, since, by then, 75% of the mail votes will be tallied.
The model depicts that Biden would eventually win 334 votes, while Trump wins about 204.
This might happen because the model predicted that the states would count about 25% of their mail ballots per day. This is what is expected to give rise to a delay of about four days.